U.S. and Other Mediators Threaten to Call Out Israel, Hamas if Gaza Hostage Talks Fail
The countries mediating between Israel and Hamas have indicated to both sides that they will not hesitate to publicly blame them for the negotiations' failure if a breakthrough is not achieved at the summit scheduled for Thursday in Doha or Cairo in what is regarded as a final push to secure a Gaza cease-fire and hostage deal.
Diplomatic sources told Haaretz that it has also been clarified to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Biden administration – which until now has solely blamed Hamas for the talks' deadlock – is reaching the point where Netanyahu's behavior would result in the White House publicly accusing him of harming the talks and preventing the release of the hostages.
Qatar and Egypt, who have primarily criticized Israel in recent weeks, have also made it clear that if Hamas torpedoes the talks, they will say so clearly.
While the administration stated about two months ago that Israel supports the so-called Biden outline for a potential deal, claiming that Hamas is at fault that the talks were derailed, this will change if no progress is achieved and Netanyahu will be seen as sharing at least some responsibility for the failure.
The administration hopes that this measure will be avoided, but fears that the political pressure on Netanyahu by members of his own coalition will cause the prime minister to derail the negotiations, thereby sealing the fate of the hostages.
The White House took a clear first step in that direction on Friday evening, when National Security Council spokesman John Kirby accused Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of jeopardizing the lives of the hostages, including American nationals.
President Joe Biden, right, meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, last month.Credit: Susan Walsh, AP
A senior diplomat involved in the talks told Haaretz that this was the first time since the Hamas attack on October 7 that the Biden administration so openly accused a senior Israeli of jeopardizing the lives of the hostages and endangering the deal.
"Until now, the administration's line was to solely blame Hamas and especially[Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar," he said.
"Now, they're accusing Smotrich and if the talks fail because of the government's behavior, they'll be ready to say for the first time that Netanyahu is to blame," he added.
According to the source, the mediating states believe that Sinwar is under growing pressure to reach a deal, after Iran and Hezbollah did not hurry to retaliate against Israel following the assassinations of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut two weeks ago.
"Sinwar perceives that Iran and Hezbollah don't want an all-out war now," he said, adding that if he fails this round of talks, "he may be left without an all-out war and without a cease-fire in Gaza."
Yahya Sinwar in Gaza City, in 2022.Credit: Adel Hana, AP
Hamas' leadership in Gaza and Doha are not pinning their hopes on the summit. According to senior officials in the group's leadership abroad, messages have been conveyed in recent days to Egypt and Qatar that if there is no change in Israel's position, it will not be possible to advance in negotiations for a deal.
Hamas emphasized that the organization is ready to reach a deal, and even conveyed similar messages to representatives of the Palestinian factions – including those in Gaza – communicating that they are ready to show flexibility in some of the conditions in the negotiations.
Hamas said that they may agree to the deportation and distancing of some of the prisoners who would be released in a deal, and to be flexible in the timetable for Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. Senior Hamas officials emphasized, however, that what is important to them is that at the end of the deal, Israel will not be able to resume fighting, nor evade the implementation of the principles related to the release of prisoners, such as the release of veteran and elderly prisoners.
IDF soldiers in Gaza, this week.Credit: IDF Spokesperson's Unit
According to the same sources, Hamas communicated to mediators that they will wait for an update on the negotiations even if, according to all estimations, Netanyahu does not intend to be flexible on the identities of the prisoners to be released and control of the Philadelphi route.
"We are waiting for clear answers," said a senior Hamas official. "President Biden's outline has already received the consent of Hamas. The question is to what extent Netanyahu wants a deal and to move forward, and to what extent the United States will apply pressure to move forward with the deal."
Hamas also estimated that if the negotiations fail, there will be no possibility of a breakthrough until at least the end of the year and the end of elections in the United States, after which management of the issue will be transferred to the next administration.
A senior official in the Biden administration told Haaretz earlier this month that Netanyahu is ungrateful toward the United States. He added that the last two conversations between Biden and Netanyahu – one during a meeting at the White House last month, the other over the phone last week – were difficult and tense.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with President Joe Biden in the White House.Credit: AFP
"Biden realized that Netanyahu was lying to him about the hostages," the official told Haaretz. "He's not saying it publicly yet, but in the meeting between them, he specifically told him, 'Stop bullshitting me.'"
The frustration expressed by Biden, however, has not been reflected so far in the administration's official statement, where the public line of blaming Hamas was kept.
Israel says that it will send a negotiating team to Doha or Cairo on August 15 for talks mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt that are described as a last attempt to reach a deal that will save the hostages and lead to a cease-fire in Gaza.
The so-called Biden outline presented in late May includes three phases. Women, sick and wounded hostages will be released first, all remaining living hostages will be released second and the bodies of hostages held by Hamas will be released last. If the deal fails between the first and second phases, Israel may renew the fighting in Gaza.